Let me start with a disclaimer. I'm an enthusiast who loves trying new things, what some might call an early adopter, a geek, and perhaps a little bit obsessed. And right now, I'm enjoying this moment in our industry immensely, like a pig in mud.
A few months ago, something shifted. I had my "wow" moment, a realization that this changes everything.
For the last couple of years, as a Head of Engineering managing teams of 25 to 37 people, I had become one of those managers who "used to code." My chances of writing anything substantial were practically zero. In all of 2024, I made maybe 40 contributions to my personal repositories: a few commits here and there, mostly small fixes or experiments that went nowhere. The kind of sporadic activity you see from someone who loves coding but has accepted the inevitable trade-off of leadership.
Then, in early 2025, something happened. While still managing the same large team, with the same responsibilities and time constraints, I suddenly found myself shipping code at a pace I hadn't seen since I was an individual contributor. Over 800 contributions in just a few months. Not toy projects. Real, ambitious systems I'd kept on a mental backlog labeled "someday when I have time." The tools that made this possible? Primarily Cursor and Claude Code, with some experimentation with Codex along the way.
That's when it hit me: "This changes everything. Nothing will be the same again." We are now entering terra incognita, unknown territory. It's a time of total uncertainty, but it's also a time of unprecedented opportunity, which is what I want to explore with you.
To Build the Future, We Must First Invent It
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it." That was the philosophy of Alan Kay and his team at Xerox PARC in the 1960s and 70s. They didn't think about building products; they focused on inventing the future itself.
Their approach was grounded in a set of powerful principles. They thought about fundamental problems, not products, aiming to solve deep human or professional challenges. They identified exponential trends and created a 30-year vision. For them, it was Moore's Law, which they used to imagine what would be possible decades later. They explored with radical freedom in intensely interdisciplinary teams, mixing computer scientists with physicists, philosophers, and ethicists, believing groundbreaking ideas came from these intersections. They followed a "demonstrate or die" principle where ideas were nothing without practical, working prototypes. They built tools to build other tools, layering their inventions to create a platform for future innovation. And they always used systemic thinking, focusing on the whole rather than just optimizing individual parts.
A perfect example is the Dynabook. In 1968, they created a cardboard prototype of a portable personal computer. They knew the hardware didn't exist yet, but they trusted Moore's Law to make it a reality within 30 years. From this long-term, visionary thinking came some of the most foundational technologies of our time: Smalltalk, laser printers, Ethernet, graphical user interfaces (GUIs), and the personal computer. They also took object-orientation, evolved it, and carried it to its extreme. Steve Jobs later famously took inspiration from their work and brought many of these ideas to the masses.
A 30-Year Glimpse into Our AI-Powered Future
Following the Xerox PARC model, let's identify the current exponential trends in AI. The capability of LLMs is constantly increasing, with more parameters and larger context windows. The cost of inference is falling exponentially. And if the trends I'm observing hold, the speed of code generation could increase 10x every 3-4 years, though this is more intuition based on current trajectories than hard data.
These trends force us to ask some provocative questions about our profession. Will the strong distinction between "programmer" and "non-programmer" continue to exist? What will our role be when 99% of the code is written by AI? Will code quality still matter, or only "verifiable correctness"?
To avoid getting bogged down in the limitations of today's AI, let's project 30 years into the future.
What will seem ridiculous in 30 years? Not working with AI agents as integral team members, coding manually or "artisanally," and remaining at the same level of abstraction (that is, typing text into files).
What will still make sense? Solving problems using software, understanding and learning a domain, and contributing our knowledge to the business.
This leads to a powerful metaphor: in the future, manual coding will be like doing Sudoku or puzzles. It will be a stimulating mental exercise, a hobby for those who enjoy it, but not a professional necessity for building the vast majority of software.
Look, I know not everyone has had their "wow" moment yet. Your mileage with AI coding assistants might vary wildly from mine. Maybe you've tried them and found them frustrating, or maybe they just don't fit your workflow. That's completely valid.
But here's why I'm making this 30-year projection: I want to sidestep the debate about whether AI "works" for programming right now. That debate is too tied to individual experience and current limitations. What I care about is the trend, and the trend seems clear and irreversible. The investment, the adoption, the sheer momentum behind this technology doesn't look like a passing fad.
So whether you've had your moment of "this changes everything" or you're still skeptical, here's what we can't avoid: the change is already here. Organizations are already restructuring around it. Budgets are already shifting. Roles are already being redefined.
Which brings us to the critical question.
A Call to Action: Who Will Reinvent Our Profession?
The shift we are experiencing is not a minor innovation like blockchain or whatever the latest hype cycle is selling us. According to the models of economist Carlota Pérez (whose work on technological revolutions analyzes patterns across centuries of industrial transformation), this is a technological revolution on the scale of the steam engine or mass production. We are at a turning point that will redefine everything.
This brings us to the central question: Who do we want to reinvent our profession?
We have two options:
- Option A: The consultants. Firms like McKinsey, whose articles on developer productivity reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of software.
- Option B: Us. The community of practitioners who truly understand software's nature, people who have embraced Extreme Programming, Lean, and Software Craftsmanship.
This choice is being made right now. Not in five years. Not when "AI matures." Now. Every day that passes, more organizations are adopting AI productivity metrics designed by people who've never shipped production code. More engineering teams are being restructured by consultants who think code generation is just "faster typing." More junior developers are being evaluated by KPIs that measure activity instead of impact. The window to shape this transformation according to our values is closing.
The stakes are higher than a simple preference. This is a fight for the soul of software development. If we, the craftspeople, don't lead this transformation, the consultants will define the future of our work. And I am not going to like the profession they design for us.
But choosing Option B—choosing us—means more than just declaring we're in charge. It means accepting responsibility for each other. It means the experienced developers who mastered previous paradigms must guide those entering the field during its most chaotic moment. It means creating spaces where experimentation is safe, where failure is learning, and where knowledge flows freely instead of being hoarded. This isn't optional. If we don't take care of our community, we don't deserve to lead this transformation.
Revisiting Our Core Principles: Software is a Means, Not an End
The first line of the Agile Manifesto is key: "We are uncovering better ways of developing software..." It was never a static set of discovered truths. It has always been about continuous learning and adaptation. The prime directive has always been to satisfy the customer by solving their problems.
This brings us to the most important principle to remember today: Software is the medium, not the end. Our mission was never just to write code. It was to solve problems and create impact. If coding is destined to become a hobby like Sudoku, then our professional identity must be rooted in something deeper. The over-specialization that led to rigid roles like "frontend developer" or "DevOps engineer" was a mistake, a mistake that AI now gives us the power to correct.
Consider the software development "Food Chain", which maps the workflow from Opportunity Selection to Validating Impact.
This visual tells a crucial story. The top section, outlined in red and marked with a skull and crossbones, represents the "danger zone" of siloed, waterfall-style handoffs. This is where individuals are disconnected from the customer and the problem they are trying to solve. In contrast, the bottom section, outlined in green, is the "safe zone" where integrated, cross-functional teams own the entire value stream from beginning to end.
The implication is clear: AI makes it painfully obvious that roles isolated in the "build" phase are the most vulnerable. To remain relevant, we must move closer to the beginning (understanding the problem) and the end (validating the impact).
The Mindset of Radical Detachment
To navigate this new era, we need the intellectual humility to empty our own cups. We must unlearn what we think we know to make space for new ideas.
You Are Not Your Code
Because the nature of software is to change, we must practice radical detachment from our creations. Detach from your beautiful code, your elegant designs, and your favorite patterns. Holding on too tightly creates rigidity, turning what should be flexible clay into a brittle relic. Our business is not building finished solutions; it is evolving solutions over time.
The New Dynamics of Managing Complexity
With AI, the friction to generate new ideas, experiments, and complexity is almost zero. The process of software development will no longer be a slow, incremental growth of a single snowball. Instead, it will be a rapid cycle of expansion and contraction: exploring dozens of options in parallel, then radically deleting and simplifying to keep only what works. Managing this explosion of complexity will become one of the most critical skills we possess.
The Great Multiplier: AI in the Forest vs. the Desert
Beth Andres-Beck and Kent Beck describe two contrasting environments for building software: the desert and the forest.
The Desert is characterized by constant urgency, silos, poor testing, and misunderstood practices. It's a place of chaos and anxiety. The Forest is characterized by good practices, technical excellence that enables evolution, and close collaboration with the business. It's a place of sustainable growth.
AI is an indiscriminate multiplier. Its effect depends entirely on the environment it's applied to.
In the Desert, AI multiplies chaos. It becomes a factory for producing "fast trash," turning a technical debt problem into technical bankruptcy. In the Forest, AI multiplies discipline. It creates a virtuous cycle. Good practices like TDD, clean code, and good documentation provide the AI with better context, making it more effective. In turn, the AI makes it easier and faster to apply these good practices, turning them into unprecedented velocity and quality.
This leads to a paradigm shift. For the first time in our industry's history, the economic argument for software craftsmanship is no longer a nuanced discussion about long-term TCO. It is an immediate, undeniable, and exponential driver of value. AI makes excellence profitable in the short term.
Essential Practices for the AI-Augmented Developer
Certain engineering practices become supercharged in the AI era.
Modular architecture is essential. The rapid expansion-contraction cycle of development is only manageable within a modular architecture. Modularity provides the firewalls necessary to run dozens of parallel experiments without the entire system collapsing into chaos.
Clean code is crucial. Semantic, understandable code is essential for the AI to grasp business logic and provide meaningful assistance.
Quality and automated testing is non-negotiable. It is the only way to safely validate the massive volume of code AI can generate.
Small steps remain important. The principle of working in small, verifiable increments remains, but we must be open to the idea that the "size" of a step might change dramatically.
The Developer Laziness Scale
Think of your interaction with AI on a "laziness scale":
- 100%: You write a prompt and blindly accept the output.
- 80%: You glance over the code for obvious errors.
- 50%: You review every line of AI-generated code carefully.
- 20-30%: You code mostly by hand, using AI for autocompletion.
- 0%: You write everything manually, artisanally.
The meta-skill is to treat this scale like a gear shift, consciously choosing the right level of automation and oversight for the road ahead. This requires retaining deep, low-level knowledge even when you aren't always using it directly.
FAAFO and Radical Simplification
The book Vibe Coding by Gene Kim and Steve Yegge introduces the FAAFO framework: a style of work that is Fast, Ambitious, Autonomous, Fun, and creates Optionality. AI is the engine that makes this possible, allowing us to tackle legacy refactors or build prototypes that once seemed impossible.
However, this power comes with a critical discipline. The ability to be Ambitious and create Optionality must be balanced with an equal commitment to radical simplification and deletion. This is where the discipline of radical detachment becomes a tactical necessity. We must detach from failed experiments as quickly as we create them.
Our Evolving Roles in the New Value Chain
AI is turning the "Build" and "Test" phases of software development into a commodity. The enduring human value, and therefore career security, lies at the extremes of the value chain: deeply understanding the "why" at the beginning and rigorously validating the impact at the end.
The bottleneck is shifting to the "fuzzy front end" (Opportunity Selection, Requirements Planning) and the "validated back end" (Running the system, Validating impact, and gathering Feedback). This highlights two critical skill areas for the future.
First, a product mindset. We need to deeply understand the problem, its context, and its intended impact. The challenge is no longer "is the code good?" but "does the system achieve the desired effect?"
Second, architectural and engineering practices. The responsibility for the system's results doesn't disappear; it intensifies. Skills in architecture, security, scalability, and performance become more critical because we will be making these decisions more frequently. AI can accelerate code generation, but the system will collapse without sound modularity and simplicity.
We Are All Beginners Again
Here's the uncomfortable truth: no matter how many years you have in this industry, we are all beginners in the Age of AI-augmented software delivery.
I've been doing this for about 30 years. That experience gives me some advantages: pattern recognition, intuition about what might work, the confidence to experiment without fear. But it doesn't exempt me from the uncertainty. When I'm pair-programming with Claude, I'm learning just as much as someone who started coding last year. The difference is that I have the luxury to be wrong, to throw away experiments, to admit I don't know.
But what about the people entering our field right now? They're walking into the most turbulent period our profession has ever seen, at a moment when the rules are being rewritten in real time. We, the experienced ones, have a responsibility to them that we cannot abdicate.
We must create safe spaces where they can learn without fear: on our teams, at local meetups, in conferences. We must share our experiments, even the failures. We must run hackathons where we figure this out together, just as we did with unit testing and Agile practices in the early 2000s. The difference is that now, the experienced among us must actively lower the barriers for those just starting, because the barriers are higher than they've ever been.
This is not charity. This is survival. If we hoard knowledge, if we gate-keep, if we let newcomers drown in the chaos, we will not have a community strong enough to fight for the soul of our profession. The consultants will win by default.
Our greatest strength has always been our community. Now is the time to prove it.
Your Path Forward: An Action Plan
So, what can you do right now to prepare?
- Move down the food chain. Get closer to the customer and the problem. Don't just ask "what"—always ask "why." Understand the business impact you are trying to create.
- Evolve from specialist to generalist. The era of the generalist is here. You don't need to be an expert in everything, but you need to learn enough about adjacent disciplines to be effective. AI can fill in the deep, specific details (like framework syntax), but you need to connect the concepts.
- Imagine our future tools. We should be building our own AI agents, encoded with our community's knowledge. Imagine a "gardener" agent that refactors code overnight, a "garbage truck" agent that identifies and removes dead code, or a performance-tuning agent that pinpoints bottlenecks. These tools are within our reach.
Conclusion: We Can't Avoid the Storm, So Let's Surf the Wave
We have the greatest opportunity in the history of our profession to finally build software in "the forest," a place where technical excellence and business impact are perfectly aligned. This requires adopting a product mindset and being willing to reinvent our best practices. It means letting go of what we think we know about software delivery, accepting that AI agents will become teammates whether we like it or not, and leaning heavily on our community as we navigate this together.
Of course, I don't have all the answers, and it's not all sunshine. There are serious issues that we, as a community, need to confront: the addictive reward cycle of working with AI, the consolidation of power in a few large tech companies, the challenge of training junior developers, and the environmental impact. These are important topics for future discussion.
But we can't let these challenges paralyze us. The change is coming. We can't avoid the storm, and honestly, we don't want to.
I've made my choice. I'm experimenting, sharing my failures as much as my wins, and making space for others to do the same. But I can't do this alone, and neither can you.
So here's what I'm asking: will we, as a community, step up and shape this transformation? Will we create the spaces where we can learn and experiment safely? Will we build the tools that encode our values instead of waiting for someone else to define them?
Or will we let this moment slip away while we debate whether AI is "good enough" yet?
The wave is here. The question isn't whether to surf it. The question is whether we'll surf it together, or watch from the shore while others ride it for us.
About This Article
This article is based on my keynote "Desapego Radical en la Era de la IA" (Radical Detachment in the AI Era), delivered at Software Crafters Barcelona in October 2025. The talk was given in Spanish and has been expanded and adapted for this written version. You can watch the original keynote and access the slides at eferro.net.
References
- Agile Manifesto, "Manifesto for Agile Software Development"
- Alan Kay, "The Early History of Smalltalk"
- Wikipedia, Xerox PARC
- Mik Kersten, Project to Product: How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Digital Disruption with the Flow Framework
- David Epstein, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
- Carlota Pérez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages
- IT Revolution, "The Turning Point"
- Wikipedia, Carlota Pérez
- Beth Andres-Beck and Kent Beck, "Forest & Desert"
- Gene Kim and Steve Yegge, Vibe Coding: Building Production-Grade Software With GenAI
